Inflation Holds at 2.4% in February as Iran Conflict Threatens to Ignite New Price Concerns

Inflation was finally behaving — until geopolitics kicked the door back open. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% in the 12 months through February, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but largely in line with expectations. Core inflation held at 2.5% — the lowest since Apr. 2021 — just before oil prices surged after the US–Israel strike on Iran, clouding the outlook again.

• Monthly CPI advanced 0.3% while core prices ticked up 0.2%, both landing precisely on forecasts and signaling stable inflation before the conflict.
• Rent prices barely budged with just a 0.1% monthly gain — the smallest uptick since Jan. 2021 — easing pressure in the largest CPI category.

Fueling chaos: Carson Group’s Sonu Varghese captured the dread, noting, “CPI inflation for February was along expectations, but this is the calm before the storm that will show up due to surging gasoline prices in March.”Oil briefly topped $100 after the Iran assault and remains elevated, complicating the Fed’s path. Traders now see September as the earliest window for rate cuts, with only a 43% chance of a second move before year-end.