Hotel Stocks Check Out as Goldman Downgrades Industry on Recession Fears
Room rates aren’t the only thing dropping at major hotel chains these days. Goldman SachsGS has slashed its outlook for the hospitality sector, citing weakening consumer demand and growing economic uncertainty. The investment bank slashed its 2025 revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth forecast to a mere 0.4%, down from its previous 1.4% estimate, triggering downgrades for industry heavyweights.
- Marriott InternationalMAR, Hilton WorldwideHLT, and Hyatt HotelsH all received downgrades, with Hyatt suffering the most severe cut from “neutral” to “sell.”
- Additionally, hotel stocks have underperformed the S&P 500’s 8% decline, with Hilton plummeting 33%, Hyatt falling 30%, and Marriott dropping 19% as of 2025.
Canary in the coal mine: The airline industry’s recent warnings have cast a shadow over the entire travel sector, with Delta’s CEO Ed Bastian remarking that consumers are “acting as if we’re going [into] a recession” — a troubling sign for hotels that typically follow airline trends. While Goldman’s updated forecast doesn’t fully account for a recession, the bank now places those odds at a concerning 45%, noting that past downturns led to steep drops in RevPAR. Amid the turbulence, Choice Hotels InternationalCHH emerges as a potential safe haven, earning a “buy” upgrade from Goldman, which cited its defensive franchise revenue model and robust balance sheets as key strengths in weathering economic headwinds better than its luxury-focused competitors.