Santa’s sleigh just got a whole lot heavier with cash. The National Retail Federation projects holiday spending will shatter records by surpassing $1T for the first time ever, despite inflation headaches, tariff turbulence, and a government shutdown threatening to dampen consumer wallets. NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay declared retailers have worked “very aggressively” to shield lower-income shoppers from price hikes by absorbing costs and finding operational efficiencies.

• Shoppers plan to drop an average of $890.49 per person on gifts, food, and decorations — marking the second-highest spending level in 23 years of NRF tracking.
• Seasonal hiring will range from 265K to 365K workers, significantly down from 442K positions added in 2024, reflecting a cooling labor market.

The spending paradox: While NRF remains “bullish about spending this holiday season,” Chief economist Mark Mathews noted, “You have to go back 50 years for there to be a consistent period where we have seen sentiment this low.” The disconnect reflects how Americans still prioritize holiday traditions by saving, planning, and splurging on loved ones, even as lower-income households trade down to make their budgets work.