Before we’ve even hit the halfway point of 2025, investment banks like UBS and Morgan Stanley are dusting off their prediction hats and hard-launching their S&P 500 price targets …for mid-2026. They see the S&P 500 at 6.4K and 6.5K, respectively, by this time next year.

A shared thread in both outlooks? Patience. That might be a rough sell as Trump’s 90-day tariff détente nears its end, with threats of 50% tariffs on the EU and a 25% tariff on foreign-made iPhones coming last Friday. But there’s still some consolation for investors.

What’s the verdict? Investors widely expected Q1 2025 to be strong — and it cleared the bar. Per FactSet, 96% of the S&P 500 has already reported, with 78% delivering earnings surprises (vs. the five-year average of 77%). The hope now is that this pace among major players can hold up despite waning consumer confidence and commentary from increasingly nervous (mostly small and mid-sized) firms. However, while the word “uncertainty” is here to stay, many large names operated as if nothing really happened in April.

• FactSet also noted that 251 S&P 500 companies gave full-year outlooks — just 8 (3%) of them withdrew or declined to issue new guidance, while 37 (14%) revised down.
• That’s more clarity than we’re seeing from smaller outfits, many of which are backing off forecasts given tariff uncertainty, while the S&P 500 has mostly recovered its year-to-date losses — down just 1.1% on the year.

What’s on Deck?

Peak earnings season has come to pass, but there are still a few reports to single out among the 99 updates coming this week. Two Dow components will post, making this a big week for the index. Here are three to keep an eye on:

• Return of the king: NvidiaNVDA
  will report Wednesday, refreshing investors on the state of the semiconductor boom; it will also be joined by other similarly-situated AI hardware makers like DellDELL
  and HPHPQ
  .
• What’s theCOST
  ? Retailers like wholesale heavyweight CostcoCOST
  , electronics mainstay Best BuyBBY
  , and athletic chain Dick’s Sporting GoodsDKS
  will report, offering end-of-season commentary and (hopefully) guidance worth celebrating.
• Fashion’s never finished: Investors will size up apparel brands like Abercrombie & FitchANF
  , GapGAP
  , and American Eagle OutfittersAEO
  for how they see the future, joined by skincare names e.l.f. BeautyELF
  and Bath & Body WorksBBWI
  .

What else to watch? In addition to the above, software reports from a pivoting SalesforceCRM

could show if its new Agentforce business is demonstrating scalability, while enterprise AI firm C3.aiAI

and cybersecurity outfit SentinelOneS

will offer more software substance. Department names Macy’sM

and Kohl’sKSS

are also expected to report, putting a cherry on top of a rowdy earnings season.