Nothing gets the market going like the Fed doing just enough to keep us guessing.

After months of gently prepping investors for a pivot, the Fed stayed put for the fourth straight meeting. Officials now project two cuts this year instead of three, while nearly half the committee signaled they don’t want any cuts at all. That might’ve rattled markets in a more anxious week, but investors turned their attention to other cracks forming beneath the surface.

The recap: The more immediate trouble came from consumers. May retail sales logged their sharpest decline in over a year at 0.9%, mostly thanks to a hangover from March’s tariff-fueled car buying spree. At the same time, renewed Israel-Iran tensions sent oil, gold, and silver higher before prices cooled down by week’s end as US involvement remained uncertain. Even with the combination of slower spending, geopolitical heat, and less aggressive policy guidance, markets managed to hold their ground.

• Despite the soft sentiment, the S&P 500 inched closer to record territory, rising 0.6% for its third straight weekly gain — driven by hopes that two Fed rate cuts will steady the market.
• Investors also shrugged off the economic turbulence and cheered solid results from CarMaxKMX
  and DardenDRI
  , as used car sales and dining out both held strong.

The Week Ahead

This week is the final complete week of the second quarter, but before we head into the second half of the year, we’ve got a few more earnings reports to cover. Among the 79 earnings calls on deck, here are the highlights:

• The biggest reports of the week will come from semiconductor giant MicronMU
  , payroll software provider PaychexPAYX
  , and logistics heavyweight FedExFDX
  .
• Consumer firms like cruise operator CarnivalCCL
  , food names General MillsGIS
  and McCormick & CompanyMKC
  , and fashion brand Levi StraussLEVI
  are also ones to watch.
• We’ll also be keeping an eye on the emergent situation in the Middle East, which threatens to send more investors into safe havens like oil and gold.

Plus, the market is on GDP watch: Final Q1 GDP Growth data lands Thursday and is expected to show a quarter-over-quarter decline. If Q2 also drops, that would officially mark the start of a technical recession. No surprise — investors will be watching this one closely.