Eyes On Earnings — Week of June 16, 2025
The year isn’t even half over, but Macquarie’s Head of Economics, David Doyle, says that “Uncertainty” is the word of the year.
Still, there are signs that things might finally be turning a corner in spite of [gestures to all that].
Preliminary numbers from UM’s Consumer Sentiment poll registered its first rise of the year, tracking with a robust recovery in Morning Consult’s daily optimism index.
This bounce came even as continuing jobless claims — a measure of people collecting unemployment — hitting their highest level since Nov. 2021 last week. And at the same time, CPI inflation rose — reaching 2.4% year-over-year.
Even with the ongoing tariff tumult, fresh bruises in the Middle East, and the deluge of mixed macroeconomic signals, Americans could be coming around after an April that many would much rather forget.
But here’s what not to forget from last week as you start this one.
The recap: Last week, we touched on the Russell 2000 — which is up 20% from its April lows, with analysts expecting it to go higher as we approach the closely watched Russell Reconstitution. A handful of stocks in and around the Russell will be a staple of our coverage for the next few weeks as a result, as we digest the index’s biggest shakeup of the year. But as the market enters the home stretch of the quarter, we’ll also be tending to our typical diet of big news — like $WBD’s planned breakup — and stragglers in earnings land…
- This week’s largest were winners — OracleORCL scored an upgrade after a strong earnings report, AdobeADBE beat and raised, and Casey’s General StoresCASY increased its dividend after a solid quarter.
- Still, some things never change — one-time retail darling GameStopGME continued to test the retail crowd’s belief, seeking $1.75B in convertible notes so that it can buy… Bitcoin (so unserious).
The Week Ahead
With Q2 coming to a close, there are only a few of ‘Q1 earnings’ left in the tank. Here’s what to watch:
- 113 firms are reporting this week per Nasdaq, including AccentureACN, KrogerKR, and Darden RestaurantsDRI, among others.
- In macro data, May retail sales are out Tuesday, expected to be an indicator of consumer strength amid tariff jitters — they rose 0.1% month-over-month in April.
- The Fed is expected to hold rates at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which will offer some new commentary on the timing of rate cuts and the economic situation.
Plus: Don’t forget this Thursday, June 19, is Juneteenth, a federal holiday. The markets will be closed, so we’ll be off as a result, but back in your inbox Friday.