Market Divergence

Europe’s Banking Underdogs Beat Wall Street Goliaths With Fresh Highs

By Daniel Schoester
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From ugly duckling to profit swan, Europe’s banking renaissance is catching eyes. The region’s long-term interest rates have surged, pushing HSBC, Barclays, and Santander to fresh highs. With the Stoxx 600 banking index up 38% this year, this trans-Atlantic rally has outpaced US peers — just as Wall Street’s latest quarter showed cracks.

  • Years of rock-bottom rates squeezed European bank margins to razor-thin levels — but the post-pandemic shift to combat inflation with higher rates has unlocked profits.
  • EU “valuations remain discounted,” said an analyst — with the sector trading around book value, compared to the 2x–2.4x multiples enjoyed by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.

Tale of two continents: While Goldman’s trading desk printed 36% gains and Morgan Stanley’s surged 23%, US bank stocks still broadly tumbled in Q2 despite earnings beats. Analysts warned American valuations have become “detached from reality,” while European lenders remain “cheap and uniquely positioned for a pick-up in domestic demand.” Sometimes it pays to be the underdog — especially when your competition is overpriced, and centuries of banking wisdom have shown that the tortoise beats the hare.