When conflict disrupts energy markets, conventional wisdom says coal usually gets a boost. But the Iran conflict has produced a counterintuitive outcome — with renewables gaining share while fossil fuel output has edged lower. The shift is pushing governments to rethink how they secure energy going forward.

Filling the power gap: Data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air shows fossil fuel power generation fell in Mar. 2026, with solar and wind offsetting more of the drop in gas output than coal did. Germany, India, the UK, and Japan all posted year-over-year gains in renewables, while only Japan and South Korea saw notable increases in coal. Countries now face a choice between leaning more on hydrocarbons or accelerating the shift toward locally generated energy.

• TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné says domestic energy is being prioritized, while BloombergNEF noted excess solar capacity is pushing prices lower and accelerating deployment.
• EU nations face roughly $26B in higher fossil fuel import costs and are preparing electrification plans to cut reliance on seaborne energy.

Nuclear’s Moment In The Sun

One of the biggest surprises from the crisis is nuclear’s return. Taiwan reversed course most sharply, shutting its last reactor in May 2025 after years of phasing out nuclear, then reopening the door just months later under President Lai Ching-te as energy pressures mounted. Japan adjusted rules to keep reactors from going offline, while South Korea sped up work on five plants already under maintenance. Even historically anti-nuclear countries are shifting, a move that could ripple through global energy policy.

• Wood Mackenzie projects global oil demand could fall to 75M barrels per day by 2050, about 20% below baseline if electrification accelerates.
• IEA’s Fatih Birol believes the war “will redraw the global energy map,” warning that “We are not going back to where we were.”

Gridlock ahead: The pivot still faces real headwinds. Steve Forbes argues that more than $10T spent on renewables hasn’t reduced per capita oil use, and retiring aging wind and solar assets will add billions in costs. Former Secretary of State John Kerry noted that major disruptions often trigger lasting energy shifts, pointing to France’s move into nuclear after the 1973 oil embargo. Momentum is building, but follow-through is where transitions usually fail.