Cuba’s Economy Shrinks 15% as an Oil Blockade Looms Large

Havana is buckling under garbage piles and mosquito outbreaks — but the real threat may be oil. Cuba’s economy has shrunk 15% since 2018, as an almost 450% inflation rate has crushed the peso from 30 per dollar in 2020 to roughly 450 on the black market. Now, risingpressure on Venezuela risks choking off the oil Cuba depends on, with shrinking shipments and seized tankers leaving the island dangerously exposed.

• Cuba has lost 2.7M people since 2020 — nearly a quarter of its population — as shortages and economic collapse fuel mass emigration.
• Venezuelan crude now covers about 40% of Cuba’s energy imports, down from ~100K barrels a day in the early 2000s to around 30K today.

No way out: University of Texas energy analyst Jorge Piñón noted that a Venezuelan oil cutoff “would be the collapse of the Cuban economy, no question about it.” Nearly 90% of Cubans live in extreme poverty, 70% skip at least one meal a day, and blackouts last up to 18 hours in parts of the country. Cuban intelligence remains embedded in Venezuela, helping prop up Maduro’s regime. Without him, Cuba’s economic lifeline vanishes.