Copper Demand Set to Surge 50% as AI and Defense Spending Fuel Supply Crisis

The red metal’s moment has arrived — and it’s not coming alone. Copper demand is projected to jump 50% to about 42M metric tons by 2040, while global supply is expected to peak near 33M tons around 2030 — leaving a major gap. AI infrastructure, data centers, humanoid robots, and rising defense spending are doing the damage, with those four alone set to add another 4M tons of demand by 2040.

• Copper demand from AI and data centers is set to surge as capacity nearly quadruples by 2040, with humanoid robots alone adding ~1.6M tons of annual demand.
• The trade is already working, with Southern CopperSCCO
  and Ero CopperERO
  up double digits this month, while Global X Copper Miners ETFCOPX
  has jumped 17%.

The stockpile effect: Goldman Sachs Group raised its first-half copper forecast to $12.75K per ton, but cautioned that prices north of $13K may fade once tariff fears cool. Still, the demand story has structurally changed, with S&P Global’s Aurian De La Noue noting, “AI and data centers really weren’t even on the radar three years ago.” With long mine development timelines, rising costs, and a tightly concentrated supply chain, the margin for error is shrinking just as demand accelerates.