Six months into Trump’s aggressive tariff regime, China’s export engine refuses to stall. Despite 55% levies, about $1B in Chinese goods still sails to US shores every day — with September shipments edging higher than August. The resilience suggests American importers can’t quit China cold turkey, even as Washington tightens the screws ahead of November’s 90-day tariff truce deadline.

• While overall bilateral trade has cratered 17% year-to-date, refined copper cathode exports jumped to $270M between July and September, while electrical cable shipments surged 87%.
• The International Monetary Fund warns bilateral decoupling is accelerating faster than in 2018–19, yet China’s $67B Q3 trade surplus shows a full split is still far off.

The bargaining chip: Bloomberg economists Chang Shu and David Qu note that “China’s strong position in global supply chains gives it some bargaining power with US importers in the near term,” adding that replacing China will take time. This deep entrenchment — especially in rare earths and electronics — gives President Xi leverage heading into talks Trump predicted would yield a “good deal.” ANZ strategist Zhaopeng Xing believes, “Both sides may reduce dependence on each other, but it cannot be reduced to zero.”