Brazil’s Embraer Plots Ascent Into Big Jet Market While Boeing and Airbus Struggle With Backlogs

There’s a fresh contender eyeing the commercial aviation arena. Brazil’s EmbraerERJ

— the world’s third-largest planemaker valued at $10.4B — thinks BoeingBA

and AirbusEADSY

have grown complacent, and it’s eyeing a move into the lucrative narrow-body jet market that’s long been its turf. CEO Francisco Gomes Neto told the Financial Times that soaring demand projections leave space for “maybe three or four” major players in a segment expected to deliver 40K aircraft over the next 20 years.

• Air France-KLM’s CEO Ben Smith revealed carriers have waited seven to eight years for certification, with Boeing and Airbus facing “unprecedented” delays.
• Embraer currently dominates regional jets carrying under 150 passengers but aims to nearly double revenue to $10B by 2030 despite Trump’s import tax adding ~$80M in costs.

The runway ahead: Breaking into narrow-bodies carries massive risk, as Bombardier’s failed attempt nearly destroyed the Canadian manufacturer before it exited commercial aviation entirely. Bank of America’s Ron Epstein says Embraer is one of the few firms able to launch a new jet “relatively cost-effectively,” though CEO Gomes Neto won’t risk the company’s “financial health” on hasty expansion. Still, with supply chains still snarled and Boeing’s 777X now six years overdue, the Brazilian upstart sees turbulence as its ticket in.