The music has stopped, and crypto treasury companies are scrambling for chairs that no longer exist. Bitcoin’s slide back into bear territory has hit the copycats of Michael Saylor’s StrategyMSTR

the hardest, knocking the wind out of a trade that once looked untouchable. The bitcoin-hoarding model that seemed brilliant on the way up now looks shaky, with Strategy slipping below the value of its own holdings — after enjoying a 2x premium just months ago.

• More than 160 US-listed companies piled into the Strategy trade this year, planning to raise $175B for crypto purchases with backing from investors like Ark Invest and Founders Fund.
• Most crypto treasury stocks now trade below the value of their token holdings, creating a death spiral where firms sell crypto to support buybacks, which drives prices even lower.

Historical déjà vu: Many traders worry the four-year halving cycle is playing out again, with retail sentiment so weak that “there could still be some downside,” according to Bitwise’s Matthew Hougan. Saylor remains unfazed, arguing that Strategy’s debts don’t mature for another 4.5 years and insisting the company will “rally from here.” But with liquidity thinning, macro conditions tightening, and bitcoin ETF outflows picking up speed, this correction may be far from finished.