America’s Population Could Shrink For First Time Ever as Net Migration Plummets to 1.3M

America’s perpetual growth machine is sputtering to a halt. The country that’s grown its population every year since day one faces a historic first — a possible population drop in 2026. Net migration has plunged from 2.7M to 1.3M in just 12 months, while births exceeded deaths by only 519K — a slim buffer that’s fading quick.

• Population growth slowed to 0.5% last year, the weakest pace outside pandemic years, as immigration curbs yanked a far-off 2081 threat into today.
• The CBO projects that the US will rely entirely on immigration for growth by 2030, yet some estimates suggest net migration already turned negative in 2025.

The demographic reckoning: Pew Research Center’s Jeffrey Passel, who’s tracked US migration since the 1970s, warned, “We really haven’t seen anything like this.” The White House claims fewer immigrants could boost opportunities for native-born workers and ease housing pressure, but economists warn it could shave 0.3 percentage points off of GDP growth in both 2025 and 2026. Whether the slowdown lasts hinges on future elections and the appetite for immigration reform.