Americans Fuel 0.6% Retail Sales Boost as Holiday Spending Defies Pessimism

America hit the stores like nothing was wrong. US retail sales climbed 0.6% in November, the biggest monthly gain since July, even with affordability stress and job jitters still in the background. Ten of thirteen categories rose, led by a rebound in motor vehicle sales after federal EV tax incentives expired the month before. Higher-income shoppers continue to drive the numbers, while lower-income households stay in bargain-hunt mode.

• Excluding autos, sales still rose a solid 0.5%, beating economist forecasts of 0.4% and signaling broad-based strength across retail categories.
• Adobe says online holiday spending hit record highs from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, with shoppers leaning on Buy Now, Pay Later to keep making purchases.

Tax refund windfall ahead: Wells Fargo expects $517B in 2026 tax refunds, the largest total since 2017 outside the stimulus years. JPMorgan says bigger refunds plus lower withholding could add 0.8 percentage points to Q1 GDP growth. Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein believe the consumer is still resilient and carrying real momentum into the finish line. With the GDP “control group” up 0.4%, growth looks set to stay on track through year-end.