The ghost of 2008 is creeping back into the housing market. With fixed mortgage rates stuck above 6% for more than three years, Americans are turning again to adjustable-rate mortgages, which offer a lower rate for the first few years before resetting later. ARM rates have been falling faster than fixed ones, with offers like 5.5% for seven-year ARMs versus 6.11% for fixed mortgages.

• ARMs now account for more than twice the share of $1M+ mortgages compared with the broader loan market, especially in high-cost states like California and Massachusetts.
• Post-2008 rules reduced many of the risks, including longer fixed-rate periods — and with most borrowers now being affluent, creditworthy buyers rather than subprime borrowers.

The refinance dilemma: In 2020, buyers could lock in sub-3% mortgages for 30 years, leaving little reason to gamble on adjustable loans. With borrowing costs now stuck above 6%, the lower starting payments suddenly look far more attractive, especially in markets where home prices remain out of reach. The assumption is that conditions will improve before the introductory period ends. But inflation risks, including geopolitical tensions tied to Iran, could keep rates elevated. If that happens, today’s shortcut could turn into tomorrow’s shock.