65.4% of Investors Remain Optimistic Entering April Despite Increasing Recession Risks

Wall Street’s dream year has got a rude awakening from geopolitics. Our latest Bear and Bull survey reveals that 65.4% of readers remain bullish heading into April — a resilient number considering US equities are wrapping up their ugliest quarter since mid-2022. Since the US-Iran conflict, crude prices have soared by ~55% and tormented months of market gains.

• The S&P 500 has risen in eight of the past 12 months, with the index falling 5.1% in March, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has fallen ~5% during the same period.
• Ten of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors declined in March by an average of 8.3%, while energy was the sole winner, up 39% year-to-date and on pace for its best quarterly performance.

Forward-looking: The conflict has effectively wiped out rate-cut expectations, with traders now seeing less than a 2% chance of two cuts by year-end, down from around 80% before the war. Piper Sandler’s Michael Kantrowitz warned, “If oil doesn’t go down, the market won’t go up — period.” And although JP Morgan’s David Kelly expects both Washington and Tehran to eventually seek an “off-ramp,” a recession risk hangs over markets like a dark cloud until then.