63.9% of Readers Hold Bullish Stance Despite Economic Warning Signs Flashing Red

The US may look divided on the ground, but investors are united in their optimism. Our latest Bear and Bull survey reveals that 63.9% of investors maintain a bullish outlook heading into September, even as Moody’s Analytics warns that states representing a third of US GDP are either in or teetering on the edge of recession.

• The S&P 500 has climbed in 7 of the past 12 months, with the index up 1.9% in August, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 1.1% during the same period.
• The Fed’s preferred inflation measure remained steady in July at 2.6% year-over-year, keeping the door open for monetary easing.

Forward-looking: The Federal Reserve’s anticipated September rate cut could be the catalyst that keeps the bulls charging. However, Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warns that the economy faces its greatest vulnerability between now and early next year, as tariff-driven inflation and restrictive immigration policies threaten to squeeze household incomes. With more than half of industries already shedding workers and employment growth slowing dramatically, the market’s optimism may soon be tested against harsh economic realities.