Wall Street is staying optimistic, but the cracks are starting to show. Our latest Bull or Bear survey finds that 62.8% of investors still hold a bullish outlook, though that’s a slight dip from last month. While the S&P 500 eked out a modest 0.13% gain over the past month, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slipped 1.6% in the same period.
- Major US indexes logged four straight gains as confidence grew that the Fed will cut rates in December, with traders boosting those odds from under 50% to over 80% in just a week.
- Wall Street’s 2026 calls have dropped in, with Deutsche Bank targeting 8K for the S&P 500, while JPMorgan and HSBC eye 7.5K, all leaning on AI-driven earnings growth expectations.
Forward-looking: Wells Fargo expects a two-stage rally in 2026, starting with a “reflation hope” trade before shifting into a stronger AI-driven surge later in the year. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson calls the current setup a “new bull market” after what he views as a rolling recession that ended earlier this year. As the AI cycle keeps reshaping markets, investors should brace for even sharper splits between the winners and everyone else.
