59% of Readers Stay Optimistic Heading Into February Despite Partial Government Shutdown

January was a rollercoaster, but that hasn’t dulled investor optimism heading into February. Our latest Bear and Bull survey shows 59% of readers remain bullish despite market volatility and a partial government shutdown that began after funding lapsed on Friday. That confidence reflects expectations that the shutdown’s impact will be limited if the House quickly approves the Senate’s funding package when it returns Monday.

• The S&P 500 managed to secure a 1.4% gain for January despite volatile trading throughout the month, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.2% during the same period.
• Precious metals sold off hard Friday as spot silver plunged nearly 30% and gold slid ~11% after President Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair eased fears of dollar “debasement.”

Forward-looking: Outside tech, earnings painted a more uneven picture, with telecom strength offsetting sharp losses in semiconductors and materials. That backdrop reinforced UBS’s view that diversification is a better hedge against geopolitical risk, since chasing headlines adds less value than focusing on “earnings growth and economic growth.” Still, with lawmakers racing a two-week clock on DHS funding, political risk remains a live variable for markets.